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The Kurds
One of the major questions raised in the aftermath of the Sykes Picot is why certain countries were formed and others were not. For example, one commonly raised question is “How did Arabs obtain several independent states from the remains of the Ottoman Empire and the Turks carve out a new country, yet the Kurdish hope for a sovereign state remain unfulfilled?” (Saeed). After all there are those that believe “An independent Kurdistan formed in the early twentieth century might have saved millions of lives and helped mitigate the risk of violence visible today in the nation states that formed as by-products of Sykes-Picot agreement” (Saeed). However, following the European occupation, the Kurds found themselves “divided between three successor states: Iraq, Syria and Turkey” (Owtram). As a result, the Kurds have found themselves the victims of oppression by their governments. For example, “The Kurds in Turkey were denied basic citizenship until the late 1990’s, and are locked in a decades-old civil war against the Turkish government”, “Iraq’s Kurds suffered from a genocide conducted by Saddam Hussein in the late 80’s” and “Syria’s Kurds had lived without cultural or linguistic freedoms for decades under the Assads. They were not granted full voting rights until the Syrian Civil War broke out in 2011” (“Sykes Picot Agreement”). Despite these atrocities, the Kurds are still active members in the fight against ISIS, battling alongside the international coalitions forces. It is in examining the state of the Kurdish people for the past decades that the question as to why an independent state was never achieved. Saeed argues that the fault lies partly with the Kurds themselves, and not solely with the Europeans, “History shows that the lack of a coherent Kurdish national discourse combined with disunited, fragmented Kurdish leadership and personal rivalries among Kurdish leaders have been key factors in halting a Kurdish state from developing. These aspects were ultimately more responsible for this failure than the unwillingness of Paris and London” (Saeed). Looking to the future, unsure as to whether or not an independent Kurdistan will ever materialize, we can only postulate as to the events which will ensue. “Perhaps the silver lining if there is one, is that, in the current period of momentous regional change in the Middle East, if the concept has analytical weight, the Kurds have the best opportunity for a long time to transcend the Sykes-Picot borders” (Owtram).
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Syria
Following the withdrawal of the French from Syria, it was time for the new Arab nation to guide itself into the future. However, the Syrian Civil War and subsequent refugee crisis are some of the most well known events in the world, influencing the political landscape across almost every continent. At this point in time, the majority of Syrians rely upon aid to survive much of it coming from the international community as much of the Syrian infrastructure and economy are in tatters. Life expectancy has dropped by 15 years since 2011 when the civil war began and since then almost a fifth of the population has fled the country entirely. Once the rebuild finally begins, there may be many long years before an effective state once again exists. The purely economic damages of the war are estimated at two hundred and fifty billion dollars, not to mention the loss of life or physical ability. So why did this happen? After Syria gained independence, it was almost immediately unstable. This was due to the fact it had a struggling and ineffective economy, weak social systems and public institutions and a small impoverished society. As a result, very little could be done by their government to improve the situation. Therefore, there were many attempts to change the government, in a span of 21 years there were twenty coups - the majority of which succeeded. This meant that society was constantly in a cycle of violence meaning that any sort of reform or change was almost impossible which in turn led to more revolts and violence. Then, in 1971, the Assad Dynasty began after another coup. Following the perpetual violence and inability to bolster society the “glue that held the country together was repressive rule and fear” (Wright).
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Turkey
One of the relatively more stable Ottoman successor states, Turkey is one of the most outspoken critics of the Sykes-Picot on the international stage. Turkish President Erdogan believes that the Sykes-Picot robbed Turkey of its natural influence in the area and openly blames the agreement for much of the modern conflict we see today. As a result, this long lasting aversion to the Sykes-Picot continues to drive Turkish foreign policy. This foreign policy has been branded neo-Ottomanism for its expansionist tendencies. "Turkey aimed to step into Syria and Iraq's borders militarily and economically, in recent years with its assertive foreign policy” for example “Erdogan has eyed reimposing Turkey's grip on parts of territory in northern Syria, floating the idea of a safe zone on the other side of the border that could accommodate some of the 2.7 million Syrian refugees in Turkey, or even a whole new city”. Turkey views their actions as a direct attempt to undo the Sykes-Picot, with an attempted free economic zone with Syria, Lebanon and Jordan failing due to the Arab Spring. Turkey’s attempts to reestablish themselves has met further difficulties as a “New Sykes Picot” seeks to establish a new Kurdistan and divide Syria and Iraq. In this way the lasting effects of the Sykes-Picot continue to drive Turkish foreign policy as the Turkish government seeks to establish some of the stability that was present pre-agreement. However, Their aggressive foreign policy has drawn the attention of the Islamic State and has led to an increased frequency of clashes between the group and the Turkish military, as well as an uptake in terrorism attacks against Turkish civilians (Williams).
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Iraq
After becoming an independent nation following the departure of the Europeans, Iraq underwent a period of drastic westernization. Following decades of relative peace, a military coup saw the ruling family executed and Iraq was declared a Republic. However, Iraq “was the result of bringing together three completely different groups when combining the cities of Mosul, Basra, and Baghdad. These tribes had little to no shared history”. It was under the newly established Republic that these differences began to surface, with multiple violent uprisings and changes in government. The Baath party, led by Ahmad Hassan al-Bakr and later Saddam Hussein, used the revenue from oil to industrialize and stimulate the economy, but they also used these funds to violently suppress any domestic opposition and pursue aggressive foreign policy. Following a costly war with Iran, and defeat in Kuwait at the hands of a UN coalition, multiple rebellions began to spring up across Iraq. Despite being weakened by the recent wars the military was able to crush the Shi’ite and Kurdish rebels. However, dissent continued to boil under the surface of Iraqi society (Randall). This dissent is what has caused Iraq to become a hotbed for ISIS, as well as other independent revolutionary movements seeking to gain their former independence, “Torn between its glorious past and its recent bloody history, Iraq is a country in turmoil”. Yet had Iraq not been formed by rival tribes that “were expected to overlook their conflicting ideologies and coalesce as one unified base to form a functional country”, the turmoil may have been avoided. Instead we have a region so riddled with conflict that “There’s a well-rooted fear that both Iraq and Syria—an area stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf—have become so frail that they may not be sustainable, regardless of whether ISIS is defeated” (Lonely Planet).
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ISIS
ISIS is one of the most widely known terrorist organizations. Having undergone a meteoric rise in power, it sought to establish an independent caliphate in Syria and Iraq, while launching attacks on citizens of both surrounding and distant countries. Due to an especially effective recruiting effort and vast funds it was able to exert its influence over a large swath of its target territory before it gradually began to be bested by an international coalition. Part of ISIS’ recruitment propaganda is their mission to abolish the Sykes-Picot,“ISIS envisions a return to a time before the creation of modern nation-states, imagining the Middle East as a borderless desert that caliphs ruled in the name of Islam”. They have even gone so far as to publicly state that “This advance will not stop until we hit the last nail in the coffin of the Sykes-Picot conspiracy.” Seizing upon a particularly turbulent moment in the Middle East ISIS sought to rapidly eliminate all borders “using the past as a fig leaf to justify an opportunistic military campaign that capitalizes on the lawlessness wrought by Syria’s civil war and on the weakness of Iraq’s security forces” (Gordon). Even though it is true that the opportunity provided to ISIS was brought about by recent events, the causes of those events are themselves caused by the Sykes-Picot. Therefore “it becomes clear that while the exact circumstances that have led to the rise of ISIS are the result of recent events, the climate that fostered the creation of such a group was abetted by western interventionism since the fall of the Ottoman Empire”. So while ISIS has experienced hitherto unattainable success for a terrorist organization due to their shockingly adept recruiting tactics, the message and motive for their actions are far from unique as they seek to undo and expel all western influence as a result of post World War I imperialism (Masoom).